volatile markets

Market Volatility Returns Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Global financial markets have experienced renewed volatility, with major indices posting sharp declines in response to a mix of economic and geopolitical pressures.

Escalating trade tensions, downgraded global growth forecasts and ongoing uncertainty around central bank policy settings have contributed to heightened investor concern.

The introduction of new tariffs by the United States targeting key trading partners such as China, Canada, the EU and Mexico has raised the risk of slower global growth and rising inflation. These measures are expected to disrupt supply chains, reduce corporate profit margins, and potentially weigh on GDP. In addition, recent reports point to weakening U.S. consumer confidence, adding further pressure to market sentiment.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 10.2% over 18 days, while the MSCI World Index dropped 7.95% over a similar period. Although there have been modest rebounds, volatility levels have lifted from previous lows. The VIX Index, a common measure of market volatility, has also risen, though it remains close to long-term averages.

Amid these developments, investors are reminded of the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective. Diversification across asset classes continues to be a key strategy for managing risk and reducing the impact of short-term market movements. While current conditions may appear uncertain, a measured and disciplined investment approach remains essential.

If you have concerns about how recent market movements could affect your investment strategy, now is an ideal time to seek professional guidance.

CONTACT ALLAN HALL FINANCIAL PLANNING


General Advice Warning

The information contained in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs and, where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial advisor. This site is designed for Australian residents only. Nothing on this website is an offer or a solicitation of an offer to acquire any products or services, by any person or entity outside of Australia. Robin Bell, Martin Cimino, Angelo Adam and Allan Hall Financial Planning Pty Ltd are Authorised Representatives of Consultum Financial Advisers Pty Ltd ABN 65 006 373 995 AFSL 230323. 

International Services

US Tariff Announcement

Context

On 2 April 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, collectively referred to as the “Liberation Day” tariffs, aimed at restructuring international trade relationships and bolstering domestic industries.

These measures include a universal baseline tariff of 10% on all imported goods, with additional reciprocal tariffs targeting specific countries based on their existing trade barriers against U.S. products.

Canada and Mexico are excluded from this round of Tariffs.

Key Aspects of the “Liberation Day” Tariffs

Baseline Tariff: A 10% tariff applies to all imports into the United States, effective 5 April 2025.

Reciprocal Tariffs: Additional tariffs are imposed on countries with significant trade barriers against U.S. goods. Notable examples include:

  • China 34%
  • EU 20%
  • Japan 24%
  • India 26%

Automobile Tariffs: A 25% tariff on all foreign-made automobiles is set to take effect at midnight on 3 April 2025.

Based on information available at this stage, Bloomberg estimates that these country-specific tariffs could add up to around 17 percentage point (ppt) the US average effective tariff rate, using the 2024 US trade composition.

  • The White House flagged that these new tariffs won’t come on top of the sectoral levies on steel and aluminium, as well as the new duties on cars and car parts due to start from April 3. Energy imports are also excluded, as well as some other products already threatened by additional sectoral tariffs.
  • The new tariffs will be additional to levies already charged on individual countries, according to the executive order.
  • Taking this into account, Bloomberg estimates that these new “reciprocal tariffs” could add around 17% to the average effective tax rate. Adding to tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico already implemented, this could take the average effective tariff rate to around 22%, from 2.3% in 2024.

Estimating the impact on the US economy is not straightforward. A Fed model from 2018 suggests each 1 percentage point (ppt) hike in the tariff rate lowers Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.14% and pushes up core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices by 0.09%. Hiking tariffs by 17ppt with this announcement would therefore point to a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit of 2.4% and a price boost of 1.4% – likely playing out over the next two to three years.

  • For inflation, firms’ pricing power, dollar moves, and the underlying state of the economy all matter, and interact in unpredictable ways. Early evidence from the data underscores the complexity. Import prices are up since Trump came into office, pointing to pass-through of tariffs to US buyers. At the same time, inflation readings in categories where imports are an important part of the consumer basket are down — possibly reflecting front loading of imports leaving retailers with an excess of inventory.

Potential Impacts on Investment Markets

1 Equities
  • Short-Term Volatility: Global equity markets may experience increased volatility, particularly in sectors tied to global trade — including industrials, autos and technology.
  • Exporters & Multinationals: U.S.-based companies with global supply chains or significant foreign sales may face higher input costs and retaliatory tariffs, affecting margins.
  • Domestic Manufacturing Tilt: U.S. companies with a domestic production base may benefit if reshoring trends accelerate or trade barriers become entrenched.
2 Fixed Income
  • Inflation Risk: Tariffs on imports typically increase input costs, which can filter into higher consumer prices. If inflation expectations rise, bond yields could follow suit.
  • Central Bank Response: The Federal Reserve may be slower to cut rates, especially if tariffs are inflationary, adding duration risk to long-dated bonds.
3 Commodities and Currencies
  • Commodity Prices: If global growth slows due to a trade disruption, commodity demand may weaken — oil and industrial metals are particularly sensitive.
  • U.S. Dollar: Uncertainty and capital flight may initially strengthen the USD, but long-term trade imbalances and fiscal risks could reverse this trend.
4 Geopolitical Risk
  • The likelihood of retaliatory measures from China, the EU, and other major economies may lead to a broader trade war environment, which markets have historically reacted to with caution.

Portfolio Considerations

This is a rapidly changing environment, with the potential for escalation via further tariffs from other countries, or alternatively, exemptions based on negotiation. Given the lack of clarity around the path forward, we expect that volatility is likely to remain elevated and we remain focused on investing for the long term.

We are not suggesting any changes to portfolios on the basis of today’s announcements, however if you have questions about your portfolio, we suggest raising them with your adviser to ensure your portfolio remains appropriate for your objectives and risk tolerance.

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General Advice Warning

The information contained in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs and, where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial advisor. This site is designed for Australian residents only. Nothing on this website is an offer or a solicitation of an offer to acquire any products or services, by any person or entity outside of Australia. Robin Bell, Martin Cimino, Angelo Adam and Allan Hall Financial Planning Pty Ltd are Authorised Representatives of Consultum Financial Advisers Pty Ltd ABN 65 006 373 995 AFSL 230323. 

US election

US Election: Implications for Investors and the Economy

Navigating Economic Challenges in a Transformed Landscape

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is set to have significant implications for the US economy and global markets

Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP, commented: “The economic environment is considerably tougher than it was during Trump’s first term. However, these constraints may nudge the administration toward more balanced, supply-side reforms, which could ultimately benefit markets in the long run.” 

Key economic indicators  

  • Higher inflation, larger budget deficits and increased bond yields are shaping a more constrained environment for policy-making 
  • Inflation has risen to 3%, federal debt has reached 125% of GDP, and bond yields are at their highest levels in years, limiting the potential for aggressive reforms without market repercussions 
  • While Donald Trump’s re-election reflects a strong voter mandate for addressing key issues like the cost of living and immigration, the current economic landscape presents challenges far greater than those during his first term in 2017. 

Despite these, Trump’s administration is expected to push forward with policies aimed at tax cuts, deregulation and trade protectionism. However, constraints such as market sensitivity to rising bond yields, a slim Republican majority in the House and limited flexibility in mandated spending could temper the more extreme measures. 

Mixed market reactions to the US election  

While US stocks initially rallied, concerns about tariffs and inflationary pressures have weighed on global equities. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have surged, reflecting speculation about crypto-friendly policies. 

While investors should prepare for potential volatility, the long-term outlook for global equities remains cautiously optimistic, albeit with more moderate returns than in previous years. 

For further insights and updates on the evolving economic landscape, read the full article here » 

CONTACT ALLAN HALL FINANCIAL PLANNING


General Advice Warning

The information contained in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs and, where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial advisor. This site is designed for Australian residents only. Nothing on this website is an offer or a solicitation of an offer to acquire any products or services, by any person or entity outside of Australia. Robin Bell, Martin Cimino, Angelo Adam and Allan Hall Financial Planning Pty Ltd are Authorised Representatives of Consultum Financial Advisers Pty Ltd ABN 65 006 373 995 AFSL 230323. 

2024 EMEA Conference Sofia

Alliott Global EMEA Conference in Sofia

Scott Jago recently returned from the Alliott Global Alliance’s EMEA Regional Conference held in Sofia, Bulgaria.

The event featured panel discussions and workshops on insightful topics in the legal and accounting industries, such as the impact of AI and cybersecurity, ESG compliance, the digital economy and leadership development. 

Representing Allan Hall, and as one of the 85 delegates from 54 firms across 30 countries, Scott attended in a dual role as both the APAC Chair and Alliott Global Board member. His participation aimed to gain deeper insights into international tax and business-related practices that would benefit Allan Hall’s clients operating on both a global scale and closer to home. 

The conference also marked the launch of AGAOne, Alliott Global Alliance’s digital collaborative platform. Tech partner LexRing demonstrated how it can enhance information and opportunities between member firms. It incorporates a full-scale directory of AGA firms globally and their specialist fields, amongst other items.    

The opportunity to connect with professionals from diverse backgrounds in such a historic city added a unique and enjoyable dimension to the conference. Allan Hall is now looking forward to the Alliott Global Alliance worldwide conference in Vietnam, scheduled for 13-17 November 2024.

For more information regarding our Alliott Global Alliance, please visit Global Alliance or contact us.

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Allan Hall Partners with LocalKind to Strengthen Community Support 1

Allan Hall Partners with LocalKind to Strengthen Community Support

Allan Hall Business Advisors proudly announces our partnership with LocalKind, a Northern Beaches community support organisation focusing on a mission to build connections, strengthen the community and foster future well-being by providing accessible support that is responsive to the community’s needs.

LocalKind relies on financial support to sustain vital operations. Recognising the importance of investing in a resilient local economy, Allan Hall has stepped forward as a gold-level supporter of LocalKind.

We are thrilled to partner with LocalKind to help support their homeless outreach and drop-in services and sponsor their range of family services and, in doing so, strengthen our ties with our local community,” said Director Mark Shepherd.

“Our support reflects our firm belief in the importance of collective action and investing in initiatives that uplift and empower those in need.”

“This collaboration aims to bolster LocalKind’s efforts in providing essential services to those in need within our local community.”

LocalKind added, “We’re proud to introduce another LocalKind of business, Allan Hall Business Advisors, whose financial support will fuel our work in providing no-strings-attached kind services to the community.”

For more information about LocalKind and ways to get involved, please visit https://www.localkind.org.au/.

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Parliament House

Labor Government 2022-23 Federal Budget

Tax & Superannuation Overview

2022–23 Labor Federal Budget Highlights

The Federal Treasurer, Dr Jim Chalmers, handed down the Labor government’s first Federal Budget at 7:30 pm (AEDT) on 25 October 2022.

Despite an uncertain global economic environment, the Treasurer has lauded Australia’s low unemployment and strong export prices as reason for a 3.5% growth in the current financial year, slowing to 1.5% in 2023–24. The Budget projects a deficit of $36.9 billion, lower than the forecast earlier this year of $78 billion.

Described as a sensible Budget for the current conditions, it contains various cost of living relief measures including cheaper child care, expanding paid parental leave and encouraging downsizing to free up housing stock. Key tax measures are targeted at multinationals, particularly changes to the thin capitalisation rules, and changes to deduction rules for intangibles.

Importantly, no amendments have been proposed to the already legislated Stage-3 individual tax rate cuts. Additional funding for a range of tax administration and compliance programs have also been announced. Finally, the fate of a suite of announced but unenacted tax measures, including a few that have been around for at least 10 years, has been confirmed.

The full Budget papers are available at www.budget.gov.au and the Treasury ministers’ media releases are available at ministers.treasury.gov.au. The tax, superannuation and social security highlights are set out below.

To read our comprehensive Budget report outlining the changes to taxation and accounting, please click below:

Business

  • Electric vehicles under the luxury car tax threshold will be exempt from fringe benefits tax and import tariffs.
  • A number of Victorian and ACT-based business grants relating to the COVID-19 pandemic will be non-assessable non-exempt income for tax purposes.
  • Grants will be provided to small and medium-sized businesses to fund energy-efficient equipment upgrades.
  • The tax treatment for off-market share buy-backs undertaken by listed public companies will be aligned with the treatment of on-market share buy-backs.
  • The 2021–22 Budget measure to allow taxpayers to self-assess the effective life of intangible depreciating assets will not proceed.
  • Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge rate increased from 26.4 to 27.2 cents per litre of diesel fuel, effective from 29 September 2022.
  • Australia has signed a new tax treaty with Iceland.
  • Additional tariffs on goods imported from Russia and Belarus have been extended by a further 12 months, to 24 October 2023.
  • Ukraine goods are exempted from import duties for a period of 12 months from 4 July 2022.
  • Technical amendments to the taxation of financial arrangements (TOFA) rules proposed in the 2021–22 Budget will be deferred.
  • Amendments to simplify the taxation of financial arrangements (TOFA) rules proposed in the 2016–17 Budget will not proceed.
  • The proposed measure from the 2018–19 Budget to impose a limit of $10,000 for cash payments will not proceed.
  • Proposed changes in the 2016–17 Budget to amend the taxation of asset-backed financing arrangements will not proceed.
  • The new tax and regulatory regime for limited partnership collective investment vehicles proposed in the 2016–17 Budget will not proceed.
  • The Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme will be expanded and enhanced.

FBT and tariff exemptions for electric vehicles

Electric vehicles under the luxury car tax threshold ($84,916 for 2022–23) will be exempt from fringe benefits tax and import tariffs. To qualify for the exemption, the electric vehicle must not have been held or used prior to 1 July 2022. Legislation introducing the FBT exemption is before the Senate.

The FBT exemption ultimately provides an opportunity for individuals to purchase an electric vehicle under a salary sacrifice novated lease arrangement. Without the FBT exemption, any benefit of this type of arrangement can be negligible. This is especially the case when an employee’s business use percentage is very low or nil. A salary sacrifice arrangement effectively a saving for the user of an electric vehicle, as the payment of the vehicle will reduce their income tax. Along with the FBT savings, consumers of electric vehicle will also benefit from the removal of a 5% import tariff.

Despite the FBT exemption, an employer will still be required to report employees’ reportable car fringe benefits in the employees’ reportable fringe benefits amount. This reportable amount is part of the payment summary reporting requirements and is used to calculate various tax rebates and thresholds.

More business grants to non-assessable non-exempt income status

State-based business grants handed out during the COVID-19 pandemic are assessable income to the recipient unless the government places that grant in a special exclusion category. The government has announced the following Victorian and ACT business grants to be non-assessable non-exempt income for tax purposes:

This announcement is in addition to several other state-based business grants that have been give non-assessable non-exempt status since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Energy efficiency grants for SMEs

Grants will be provided to small and medium-sized businesses to fund energy-efficient equipment upgrades.

The grants will be available to support studies, planning, equipment and facility upgrade projects that improve energy efficiency, reduce emissions or improve management of power demand. The government will provide $62.6 million over 3 years from 2022–23 for this measure.

Fuel tax credits — heavy vehicle road user charge increased

The Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge rate has been increased from 26.4 cents per litre to 27.2 cents per litre of diesel fuel, effective from 29 September 2022.

The previous rate of 26.4 cents per litre was announced in the 2021–22 Budget and commenced on 1 July 2021. The increased rate will reduce expenditure on the Fuel Tax Credit from the 2022–23 income year.

Individuals

  • The amount pensioners can earn in 2022–23 will increase by $4,000 before their pension is reduced, supporting pensioners who want to work or work more hours to do so without losing their pension.
  • To incentivise pensioners to downsize their homes, the assets test exemption for principal home sale proceeds will be extended and the income test changed.
  • The income threshold for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card will be increased from $61,284 to $90,000 for singles and from $98,054 to $144,000 (combined) for couples.
  • The Paid Parental Leave Scheme will be amended so that either parent is able to claim the payment from 1 July 2023. The scheme will also be expanded by 2 additional weeks a year from 1 July 2024 until it reaches 26 weeks from 1 July 2026.
  • The maximum Child Care Subsidy (CCS) rate and the CCS rate for all families earning less than $530,000 in household income will be increased.
  • The current higher Child Care Subsidy (CCS) rates for families with multiple children aged 5 or under in child care will be maintained.
  • Legislation will be introduced to clarify that digital currency (or cryptocurrencies) will not be treated as foreign currency for income tax purposes.

Superannuation

  • Eligibility to make a downsizer contribution to superannuation will be expanded by reducing the minimum age from 60 to 55 years.
  • The 2021–22 Budget measure that proposed relaxing residency requirements for SMSFs and small APRA-regulated funds (SAFs) from 1 July 2022, has been deferred.
  • The 2018–19 Budget measure that proposed changing the annual audit requirement for certain self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) will not proceed.
  • A requirement for retirement income product providers to report standardised metrics in product disclosure statements, originally announced in the 2018–19 Budget, will not proceed.

Minimum age to make downsizer super contributions reduced

Eligibility to make a downsizer contribution to superannuation will be expanded by reducing the minimum age from 60 to 55 years.

The downsizer contribution allows an individual to make a one-off post-tax contribution to their superannuation of up to $300,000 per person from the proceeds of selling their home.

Both members of a couple can contribute and the contributions do not count towards non-concessional contribution caps.

The measure will take effect from the start of the first quarter after Royal Assent of the enabling legislation.

Proposed changes to SMSF residency requirements — deferred

The 2021–22 Budget measure that proposed relaxing residency requirements for SMSFs and small APRA-regulated funds (SAFs) from 1 July 2022, has been deferred.

The proposed measure relaxes the residency requirements for SMSFs by extending the central control and management test safe harbour from two to five years for SMSFs. In addition, the active member test will also be removed for both SMSFs and SAFs.

The change will allow members to continue to contribute to their superannuation fund whilst temporarily overseas, ensuring parity with members of large APRA-regulated funds.

This measure will now take effect on or after the date of Royal Assent of the enabling legislation.

Income threshold increased for Commonwealth Seniors Health Card

The income threshold for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card will be increased from $61,284 to $90,000 for singles and from $98,054 to $144,000 (combined) for couples.

The government will also freeze social security deeming rates at their current levels for a further 2 years until 30 June 2024, to support older Australians who rely on income from deemed financial investments, as well as the pension, to deal with the rising cost of living.

This measure delivers on the Labor government’s election commitments as published in the Plan for a Better Future.

Need help?

If you would like assistance to interpret these changes and how they may affect your individual or business circumstances, please contact your Allan Hall Advisor on 02 9981 2300.

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inflation/stocks

How businesses with accurate data insights are surviving inflation

Article by SmartCompany: The Great Data Divide

How SMEs with accurate data insights are surviving the inflationary cycle

Key points

  • Real-time data is more accessible to small and medium businesses than ever before
  • It’s allowing a generation of business owners who’ve had to rely on experience and gut feel to transform their businesses into data-driven operations and grow their revenues and margins in the face of difficult economic headwinds

Regardless of industry, businesses can be divided into haves and have nots by the accuracy and recency of their data. For those running on gut feel, or how they’ve always done it, a perilous combination of economic drivers could push them to the wall.

With every news story headline, the outlook seems to get more challenging for SMEs. With supply chains stretched, prices rising and skilled employees impossible to find, there are pressures across every single facet of business.

Unfortunately, if you believe the forecasts — it’s likely to stay that way for a while yet. It seems that business owners are confronted with a never-ending set of challenges, and to make money in the current climate, good data, far more than good luck, is required.

In the current environment, and for a long while into the future, the divide between those who have data and those who don’t, is akin to a forecast about who will (and won’t) thrive, or even survive. While big data remains the province of large corporates and governments, real-time data is more accessible to SMEs than ever before.

This article also references the Xero Small Business Insights Report findings for July 2022. 

Read the full article here »

At Allan Hall we’re experts in Xero – online accounting software that’s easy to use. Find out more about Xero here or drop us a line to get started. A better way to work – together with us, share access to your business numbers so everyone is up to speed. Xero accounting software lets you work anywhere.

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australian dollars

Shadow economy

ATO cash job crackdown

The term ‘black economy’ has changed to ‘shadow economy’. This change has been made to reflect the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) definition of unreported or dishonest economic activity.

The shadow economy affects all Australians. It refers to dishonest and criminal activities that take place outside the tax and regulatory systems.

Although most people do the right thing, some people and businesses deliberately avoid paying the right amount of tax. For information on how this is being addressed, see the ATO’s Our focus.

Those who participate in the shadow economy reduce the funds available for essential community services, such as:

  • health care – including Medicare and hospitals
  • disaster response – for example, during bushfires, floods, droughts, COVID-19
  • education – including schools and teachers
  • transport and infrastructure – including airports, roads and railways.

For details on how this affects everyone, see The shadow economy explained.

The ATO is committed to tackling the shadow economy and creating a level playing field – see The whole-of-government shadow economy action plan.

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Cost-Reduction-Tactics-1

Cost pressure continues to impact business

Australian Bureau of Statistics survey findings

Over one-third of all businesses expect to increase the price of their goods or services over the next three months by more than usual, a similar result to March 2022, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

ABS Head of Industry Statistics, John Shepherd, said: “Most of these businesses were finding that increases in the cost of products and services and fuel and / or energy costs were leading factors for planned price increases.”

The survey results also showed nearly half of all businesses have no plans to increase their prices over the next three months.

Of these businesses, nearly half said it was to retain customers and 46% said they had fixed-price contracts in place.

The results also provided information about planned capital expenditure over the next three months. Almost one in five businesses have planned capital expenditure in May 2022, consistent with findings in May 2021.

Nearly half of businesses planning capital expenditure indicated it would be higher than what is usual for this time of year, fewer than a year ago when 59% planned for higher expenditure. 

The biggest Influencing factors on whether businesses were planning for capital expenditure were uncertainty about the future state of the economy and supply chain disruptions. 

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